October 2019 – Page 2 – Hurricane And Typhoon Updates

TD17 – Atlantic Ocean

Oct. 25, 2019 – NASA-NOAA Satellite Catches Development of Gulf Tropical Depression 17

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over the Gulf of Mexico and revealed that a low pressure area was developing into a depression. On Oct. 25, that low pressure area became Tropical Depression 17.

Suomi NPP image of Bualoi — NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over the Gulf of Mexico and the VIIRS instrument aboard captured this image of developing Tropical Depression 17 on Oct. 24. Suomi NPP showed that the center of circulation was west of the bulk of clouds. Credit: NASA/NOAA/NRL

On Oct. 24, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite captured a visible image of the structure of the low pressure area that became Tropical Depression 17 on Oct. 25. The storm appeared elongated from south to north, but the center was actually located west of all of the clouds and showers. In satellite imagery on Oct. 25, the National Hurricane Center said, “Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to the northeast of the low-level center.”

Status of Tropical Depression 17

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on Oct. 25, the center of Tropical Depression 17 was located near latitude 25.6 degrees north and longitude 94.4 degrees west. That puts the center about 320 miles (515 km) south-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana.

The depression was moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 kph). A motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected later in the day and through Sunday [Oct 27]. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 kph) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 millibars.

The National Hurricane Center or NHC said, “Some strengthening is expected and the depression could become a tropical storm later in the day on Oct. 25. The cyclone is then expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf coast.”

On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning.

NHC Forecasts Conditions Expected

The NHC noted the following conditions are forecast: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest Alabama.

Forecasting a Merge With a Cold Front

The NHC noted, “Since the depression is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov.”

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Bualoi – Western Pacific Ocean

Oct. 25, 2019 -NASA-NOAA Satellite Shows Wind Shear Affecting a Changing Typhoon Bualoi

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean revealed that Typhoon Bualoi continued to look asymmetric because of ongoing wind shear. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued the final bulletin on Bualoi as it was beginning the transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.

On Oct. 25, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite captured a visible image of the structure of Bualoi. The storm appeared elongated from southwest to northeast, indicating that it had begun its transition into an extra-tropical cyclone. The image was generated by NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

What Wind Shear Does to a Tropical Cyclone

In general, wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude. Tropical cyclones are like rotating cylinders of winds. Each level needs to be stacked on top each other vertically in order for the storm to maintain strength or intensify. Wind shear occurs when winds at different levels of the atmosphere push against the rotating cylinder of winds, weakening the rotation by pushing it apart at different levels.

What does Extra-tropical Mean?

When a storm becomes extra-tropical it means that a tropical cyclone has lost its “tropical” characteristics. The National Hurricane Center defines “extra-tropical” as a transition that implies both poleward displacement (meaning it moves toward the north or south pole) of the cyclone and the conversion of the cyclone’s primary energy source from the release of latent heat of condensation to baroclinic (the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses) processes. It is important to note that cyclones can become extratropical and still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm force.

Bualoi’s Final Advisory

When the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued their final bulletin on Bualoi at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC), the storm was centered near latitude 33.7 degrees north and longitude 148.0 degrees east, about 421 nautical miles east of Yokosuka, Japan. The storm was speeding to the northeast at 25 knots (28 mph/44 kph) and had maximum sustained winds near 65 knots (75 mph/120 kph).

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center said that Bualoi was moving north-northeast and will continue to weaken. The storm is forecast to make its transition to an extra-tropical cyclone well to the east of Japan by the end of the day on Oct. 25.

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Bualoi – Western Pacific Ocean

Oct. 24, 2019 – Satellite Analysis Reveals and Asymmetric Typhoon Bualoi

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite and NASA’s Aqua satellite both passed over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and both used infrared light to obtain temperature data and shape information on Typhoon Bualoi.

AIRS image of Bualoi — NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Typhoon Bualoi and the AIRS instrument aboard captured this image of the storm on Oct. 23 at 11:29 p.m. EDT (0329 UTC). Aqua found that the strongest thunderstorms around west of center had cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder than 210 Kelvin (minus 81.6 degrees Fahrenheit/minus 63.5 Celsius). Credit: NASA JPL, Heidar Thrastarson

The shape of a storm says a lot about what is happening to it. Symmetrical storms are stronger, more organized storms. It is like a spinning tire that is well rounded. It can spin faster. Asymmetric storms cannot rotate as fast as symmetrical storms. It is similar to a flat tire cannot go as fast as a rounded tire. Satellite data provides a look at the symmetry of storms and found that Typhoon Bualoi is now an asymmetric storm, indicating it is weakening.

Infrared data provides temperature information, and the strongest thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere have the coldest cloud top temperatures. This data is helpful to forecasters because storms are not uniform around tropical cyclones and it helps pinpoint where the strongest storms are located.

On Oct. 23 at 12:12 p.m. EDT (1612 UTC), the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP found strongest thunderstorms west of center had cloud top temperatures as cold as 190 Kelvin (minus 117 degrees Fahrenheit/minus 83.1 Celsius). NASA research has shown that cloud top temperatures that cold indicate strong storms have the potential to generate heavy rainfall.

William Straka III, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin – Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC) created imagery of the storm using the Suomi-NPP satellite. The strongest thunderstorms were on the western side of the eye, while the eastern side showed tropospheric gravity waves created by overshooting cloud tops into the stratosphere. An overshooting cloud top is a dome-like protrusion above a cumulonimbus anvil cloud, often penetrating into the lower stratosphere. It indicates a very strong updraft in the convective cloud or thunderstorm.

Gravity waves are the mark of a powerful storm. They are created when air moving around the atmosphere gets pushed to another place as in the case of tropical cyclones. Powerful thunderstorms around a tropical cyclone’s center can move air up and down and generate these waves in quick, short bursts. They can be seen as ripples in some imagery of clouds in a tropical cyclone.

“The brightness temperature showed an asymmetrical orientation with the circulation being hidden in the convection. Also, the southern part of the storm seems to have some dry air intruding in on it, simply based on the infrared appearance,” Straka said.

When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Typhoon Bualoi, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument aboard captured an image of the storm on Oct. 23 at 11:29 p.m. EDT (0329 UTC). Aqua found that the strongest thunderstorms around west of center had cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder than 210 Kelvin (minus 81.6 degrees Fahrenheit/minus 63.5 Celsius). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center said that animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts decaying deep convective banding wrapping into a ragged eye.

On Oct. 24 at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), Typhoon Bualoi was located near latitude 29.4 degrees north and longitude 143.5 degrees east. That is about 670 nautical miles south of Misawa, Japan. Bualoi was moving to the north-northeast with maximum sustained winds near 90 knots (103 mph/167 kph).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that Bualoi is moving north-northeast and will continue to weaken. The storm will become extra-tropical east of Japan within 24 hours.

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Bualoi – Western Pacific Ocean

Oct. 23, 2019 – NASA Analysis Shows Heavy Rain in Typhoon Bualoi

Typhoon Bualoi continues to move through the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and the Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite measured rainfall rates throughout the storm.

GPM image of Bualoi — The GPM core satellite passed over strengthening Typhoon Bualoi in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on Oct. 22 at 12:11 p.m. EDT (1611 UTC) and found the heaviest rainfall (white/pink) falling at a rate of over 50 mm (about 2 inches) per hour. Credit: NASA/JAXA/NRL

The GPM’s core satellite passed over Typhoon Bualoi on Oct. 22 at 12:11 p.m. EDT (1611 UTC). GPM found the heaviest rain around the eye, falling at a rate of over 50 mm (about 2 inches) per hour. Forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC incorporate the rainfall data into their forecasts.

At 5 a.m. EDT (7 p.m. ChST/0900 UTC) the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located near latitude 23.5 degrees north and longitude 142.0 degrees east. The National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam noted that it is about 405 miles northwest of Agrihan. Bualoi is now moving north-northwest at 13 mph and will continue a gradual turn to the north tonight and then toward the north-northeast through Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 115 mph and Bualoi is expected to continue this weakening trend the next several days. Bualoi is expected to gradually increase in forward speed as it heads farther into the north Pacific east of Japan.

Both the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and NASA manage GPM.

For updated forecasts, visit: https://www.weather.gov/gum/Cyclones

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Bualoi – Western Pacific Ocean

Oct. 22, 2019 – NASA Finds Heavy Rain Potential in Typhoon Bualoi Over Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi was lashing the Marianas Islands in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean when NASA’s Aqua satellite passed overhead and analyzed the cloud top temperatures to give forecasters insight into the storm’s rain potential.

On Oct. 22, a Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the islands of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the Northern Mariana Islands.

One of the ways NASA researches tropical cyclones is by using infrared data that provides temperature information. Cloud top temperatures identify where the strongest storms are located. The stronger the storms, the higher they extend into the troposphere, and the colder the cloud top temperatures.

Tropical cyclones do not always have uniform strength, and some sides have stronger sides than others, so knowing where the strongest sides of the storms are located helps forecasters. NASA then provides data to tropical cyclone meteorologists so they can incorporate the data in their forecasts.

On Oct. 22 at 0335 UTC (Oct. 21 at 11:35 p.m. EDT) NASA’s Aqua satellite analyzed the storm using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument. AIRS found coldest cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder 210 Kelvin (purple) which is minus 81 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 63.1 degrees Celsius) around the center. NASA research has shown that cloud top temperatures that cold indicate strong storms that have the capability to create heavy rain.

The AIRS infrared imagery also hinted at an eye, but the eye was more apparent in the AIRS microwave imagery. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated that the eye is about 8 nautical miles wide.

At 11 a.m. EDT (1 a.m. CHST local time/1500 UTC) NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) in Tiyan, Guam noted that the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located near latitude 19.7 degrees north and longitude 143.2 degrees east. That puts the eye about 175 miles west-northwest of Agrihan, and about 440 miles north-northwest of Guam.

Bualoi is moving northwest at 16 mph. It is expected to make a slight turn toward the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 145 mph. Bualoi is forecast to intensify through Thursday and then begin weakening as it moves in a northerly track.

The AIRS instrument is one of six instruments flying on board NASA’s Aqua satellite, launched on May 4, 2002.

For updated forecasts, visit: https://www.weather.gov/gum/Cyclones

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Neoguri – Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Oct. 22, 2019 – NASA Imagery Reveals Neoguri Now Extra-Tropical

Formerly a typhoon, now an extra-tropical storm, Neoguri has taken on more of a frontal system appearance in imagery from NASA’s Aqua satellite. The final warning on the system has been issued.

Aqua image of Neoguri — On Oct. 22, the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua provided a visible image of Extra-Tropical Storm Neoguri, east of Japan. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS).

On Oct. 22, the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite provided a visible image of Neoguri. The MODIS imagery indicated that Neoguri had an elongated and poorly defined low-level circulation center with the bulk of clouds and convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone) pushed to the northeast of the center because of strong southwesterly wind shear.

What is Wind Shear?

What does Extra-tropical Mean?

When a storm becomes extra-tropical, it means that a tropical cyclone has lost its “tropical” characteristics. The National Hurricane Center defines “extra-tropical” as a transition that implies both poleward displacement (meaning it moves toward the north or south pole) of the cyclone and the conversion of the cyclone’s primary energy source from the release of latent heat of condensation to baroclinic (the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses) processes. It is important to note that cyclones can become extratropical and retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm force.

Neoguri on Oct. 22

On Oct. 22 at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued the final warning on Extra-tropical Storm Neoguri. At that time, Neoguri was centered near latitude 34.1 degrees north and longitude 141.4 degrees east. That is about 119 nautical miles south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan. Neoguri was moving to the east-northeast and had maximum sustained winds near 45 knots (52 mph/83 kph). Neoguri is expected to intensify slightly and continue tracking northeastward.

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Priscilla – Eastern Pacific Ocean

Oct. 21, 2019 – NASA Catches Short-lived Tropical Storm Priscilla’s Landfall in Mexico

Tropical Storm Priscilla was short-lived because it formed on Sunday, Oct. 20 very close to the coast of western Mexico and made landfall that same day. NASA’s Terra satellite provided a visible picture of the storm as it was making landfall.

Terra image of Priscilla — Tropical Storm Priscilla was short-lived because it formed on Sunday, Oct. 20 very close to the coast of western Mexico and made landfall that same day. NASA’s Terra satellite provided a visible picture of the storm as it was making landfall. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS).

On Oct. 20, a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula as Tropical Storm Priscilla moved toward southwestern Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center noted on Sunday, Oct. 20 at 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located off the west coast of Mexico about 65 miles (105 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo. It was moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 kph), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico within the warning area later today, and move inland by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

When NASA’s Terra satellite passed over western Mexico at 1:30 p.m. PDT (4:30 p.m. EDT), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer provided a visible image. The image showed that Priscilla was already affected by its interaction with land and was somewhat elongated. The clouds associated with the tropical storm had spread out over Jalisco, Nayarit and Colima states.

Priscilla dissipated by 11 p.m. EDT on Oct. 20. At that time, the remnants of Priscilla were located near latitude 20.0 degrees north and longitude 104.7 degrees west. The remnants were moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 kph). Maximum sustained winds were near 30 mph (45 kph) with higher gusts.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center said that rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, were expected across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night, Oct. 22.

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Neoguri – Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Oct. 21, 2019 – NASA Finds a Transitioning Tropical Storm Neoguri

NASA’s Terra satellite passed over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on Oct. 21 and captured a visible image of Tropical Storm Neoguri. Satellite imagery revealed that the storm is becoming extra-tropical.

Terra image of Neoguri — On Oct. 21, the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra provided a visible image of Tropical Storm Neoguri along Japan’s East coast. The storm was becoming extra-tropical. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS).

On Oct. 21, the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra satellite provided a visible image of Neoguri. The MODIS imagery indicated that Neoguri appeared elongated and large storm, where the bulk of clouds and convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone) were pushed to the northeast of the center as a result of southwesterly wind shear. Sheared convection and initial frontal features indicate that the system is undergoing extratropical transition.

What is Wind Shear?

What does Extra-tropical Mean?

Neoguri on October 21

On Oct. 21 at 11a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) the Joint Typhoon Warning Center said that Neoguri was centered near latitude 31.4 degrees north and longitude 125.6 degrees east. That is about 311 miles southwest of Yokosaka, Japan. Neoguri was moving to the northeast and had maximum sustained winds near 40 knots (46 mph/74 kph).

Neoguri is expected to continue to weaken and will become entirely extra-tropical within 12 hours.

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Bualoi – Western Pacific Ocean

Oct. 21, 2019 – NASA Finds Typhoon Bualoi Rapidly Intensified

Typhoon Bualoi rapidly intensified over 24 hours and quickly developed an eye and powerful thunderstorms.

On Oct. 21, the eye of Typhoon Bualoi was just over 50 miles from the island of Saipan when NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed overhead. Saipan is the largest island of the Northern Mariana Islands. The Marianas are a commonwealth of the United States in the western Pacific Ocean.

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided forecasters with an image of Bualoi revealing a clear eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted at 11 a.m. EDT on Oct. 21, that Tropical Depression 22W (Bualoi) rapidly intensified by 35 knots (40 mph/65 kph) over the past 24 hours from 70 knots (81 mph/129 kph) at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) on Oct. 20 to the current intensity of 105 knots (120 mph/194 kph).

JTWC also noted “Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts a 15 nautical mile round eye embedded in a compact, asymmetric convective core.”

Satellite imagery helps forecasters understand if a storm is organizing or weakening. The shape of a tropical cyclone provides forecasters with an idea of its organization and strength, and NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided a visible image of the storm to forecasters.

Bualoi formed on Oct. 19 as Tropical Depression 22W and strengthened into a tropical storm later that day. It became a typhoon on Oct. 20.

Warnings and Watches

On Monday, October 21, 2019, the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam noted that a Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Damaging winds of 39 mph or more are expected through this morning. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the islands of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the Northern Mariana Islands. Damaging winds of 39 mph or higher are possible today.

Status of Typhoon Bualoi on Oct. 21

At 11 a.m. EDT (1 a.m. CHST, local time/1500 UTC), Typhoon Bualoi was centered near latitude 15.8 degrees north and longitude 146.4 degrees east. That puts the eye about 65 miles northeast of Saipan, 75 miles northeast of Tinian, 130 miles south-southeast of Alamagan, and about 195 miles northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 120 mph. Bualoi is forecast to intensify through Wednesday.

Bualoi is moving northwest at 12 mph. It is expected to maintain this general course and speed over the next 24 hours.

For updated forecasts. visit: https://www.weather.gov/gum/Cyclones

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Nestor – Atlantic Ocean

Oct. 19, 2019 – NASA Finds Heaviest Rain on Tropical Storm Nestor’s Eastern Side

NASA imagery revealed that the eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nestor contains the storm’s heaviest rain rates. That side of the storm has been drenching Florida, as seen in a satellite image from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite on Oct. 19.

GPM image of Nestor — GPM passed over the Gulf of Mexico on Oc. 19 at 3:51 a.m. EDT (0751 UTC) and provided rainfall rates in Tropical Storm Nestor. The heaviest rainfall was occurring in the eastern side of the storm, over Florida and falling at a rate of over 36 mm (about 1.4 inch) per hour and at a rate of 25 mm (about 1 inch) per hour. Credit: NASA/NRL

NASA has the unique capability of peering under the clouds in storms and measuring the rate in which rain is falling. GPM passed over the region from its orbit in space and measured rainfall rates in these storms.

GPM passed over the Gulf of Mexico on Oct. 19 at 3:51 a.m. EDT (0751 UTC) and provided rainfall rates in Tropical Storm Nestor. The heaviest rainfall was occurring in the eastern side of the storm, over Florida and falling at a rate of over 36 mm (about 1.4 inch) per hour and at a rate of 25 mm (about 1 inch) per hour.

Forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC incorporate the rainfall data into their forecasts. NHC said, “Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.”

On Oct. 19, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Florida’s Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown, Florida. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida to Clearwater Beach, Florida.

At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Nestor has redeveloped farther west near latitude 29.5 north, longitude 86.8 west. That’s just 80 miles(125 km) west-southwest of Panama City, Florida.

Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 kph). A turn toward the east-northeast is forecast to occur Sunday. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 996 millibars.

The Tyndall Air Force Base Tower located south of Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 115 feet (35 m). A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida, recently measured a water level of 3.2 feet above Mean Higher High Water.

No change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the coast, but weakening is forecast to begin after the cyclone moves inland. Nestor is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical by early afternoon today, Oct. 19. On the forecast track, Nestor is expected to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle around mid-day, Oct. 19, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday as a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday also as a post-tropical cyclone.

For updated forecasts, visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center