Fewer Southeastern Tornadoes Occur Following Dry Falls and Winters


Rainfall irregularities as observed by NASA’s Tropical Rainfall
Measurement Mission  satellite. Credit: NASA

Perhaps Dorothy, from the famed film Wizard of Oz, should have hoped for a fall or wintertime drought. According to findings from a NASA-funded study published last June in Environmental Research Letters , dry fall and winter seasons in the southeastern United States mean it is less likely that Southern twisters will develop in springtime to sweep anyone off their feet.


Using rainfall data from NASA satellites, rain gauge information, and NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center tornado record dating back to 1952, University of Georgia meteorologists Marshall Shepherd and Tom Mote and Purdue University climatologist Dev Niyogi discovered a statistical tendency for drought-ravaged fall and winter seasons to pave the way for “below normal tornado days” in spring seasons that follow.

 

“This is conceptually similar to what Bill Gray’s been doing for more than 25 years when he predicts how active the hurricane season will be based on African rain,” said Shepherd, the study’s lead author, of the Colorado State University’s pioneer hurricane season forecaster.

They culled data from Northern Georgia and other parts of the southeast, but Shepherd and his colleagues believe their findings may have relevance for other regions. The new study also adds to the body of related work Shepherd and Niyogi are ushering, including their study earlier this year in the aftermath of Atlanta’s spring 2008 twister that linked urbanization and drought to tornado activity.

For Shepherd in particular, there’s no place like home when considering the geographical focus of much of his meteorological research. “Science is my proverbial yellow brick road,” explained Shepherd. “It’s taken me down some fascinating paths, especially in learning more in recent years about tornado phenomena in my own backyard.”

 

–Gretchen Cook Anderson, NASA’s Earth Science News Team

When It Rained,It Poured

Satellite image
The image shows estimates of rainfall for the southeastern United States from
September 14–21. The estimates, acquired by multiple satellites, are calibrated
with rainfall measurements from NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission
(TRMM)satellite. The highest rainfall amounts—more than 300 millimeters
(11.8 inches)—appear in blue. The lightest amounts appear in pale green.
Credit: NASA/Jesse Allen

For the past four years, drought has parched the soil of north Georgia farms, nearly drained Atlanta’s 38,000-acre reservoir, and left area lawns brown. Then in just eight days in September 2009, the region’s weather took a turn that likely had residents asking if they were on a climate seesaw.

 

As millions of Georgians watched and as many fled for higher ground, meteorological forces coalesced to deliver heavy rains and flooding not seen in the southeastern U.S. in more than 100 years, according to the National Weather Service.

 

Millions of dollars of property were destroyed, and ten lives were lost. The flooding dominated local TV news and compelled the governor to declare a state of emergency across 17 counties.

 

Even before the rains ended, research meteorologist, Marshall Shepherd a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia, and colleagues began piecing together rainfall and soil moisture data from NASA satellites, Doppler radar, weather reports and ground-level rain gauges to assemble a clearer picture of the climatological factors that fueled the flooding.

 

Though not yet peer reviewed, Shepherd’s initial findings suggest what may have prompted the downpours and floods. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was drawn into the southeast by a stalled low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley. The moist air and a series of meteorological disturbances merged with a key ingredient – a dramatic increase in urban land cover – to bring this historic weather event to the region for the second time in as many years.

 

“We had days and days of downpours and an extraordinary 24-hour rainfall event at the end of that period. With soil moisture already at a high, the rain could no longer infiltrate the soil and we reached a tipping point for flooding,” explained Shepherd, a native of metropolitan Atlanta who NASA has funded to investigate how urban land cover and pollutants affect rainfall and surface water changes. 

 

“The rain and the soil moisture content combined to overwhelm rivers and streams,” he said. “Add to that Atlanta’s impenetrable roads and sidewalks, which increase the volume of runoff, and you get the event of record we witnessed.”

 

According to Shepherd, the long drought in the southeast – which caused job losses in agriculture and lawncare and other water use hardships across many sectors of society — is now over.  

 

“In fact, October is normally the driest month in North Georgia,” Shepherd said. “But this year, sea surface temperature data from NASA and NOAA satellites tell us a moderate El Nino in the Pacific appears likely to lead to a cooler and wetter fall and winter in the Southeast.”

 

Curiously, drought may be the last of Atlanta residents’ weather worries in the next season or two to come.

 

–Gretchen Cook-Anderson, NASA’s Earth Science News Team