Tag: Mario 2019

Lorena – Eastern Pacific Ocean

Sep. 20, 2019 – NASA Analyzes Rainfall Rates Hurricane Lorena Over Mexico, and Mario Nearby

Two tropical cyclones are very close together near the coast of western Mexico. Hurricane Lorena was moving over the southern tip of Baja California, and Tropical Storm Mario was south of Lorena over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. NASA calculated the rainfall rates happening in both of those tropical cyclones.

GPM image of Lorena and Mario
The GPM core satellite passed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Sept. 20 at 3:36 a.m. EDT (0736 UTC) and provided rainfall rates in Hurricane Lorena and Tropical Storm Mario, close in proximity. The heaviest rainfall (pink) was occurring in the eastern side of Lorena, falling at a rate of over 36 mm (about 1.4 inch) per hour and at a rate of (orange) 25 mm (about 1 inch) per hour around the center and band of thunderstorms east of center. GPM also showed rain rates of (orange) 25 mm (about 1 inch) per hour around the center of Mario. Credit: NASA/JAXA/NRL

NASA has the unique capability of peering under the clouds in storms and measuring the rate in which rain is falling. The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite passed over the region from its orbit in space and measured rainfall rates in these storms.

GPM passed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Sept. 20 at 3:36 a.m. EDT (0736 UTC) and provided rainfall rates in Hurricane Lorena and Tropical Storm Mario, close in proximity. The heaviest rainfall was occurring in the eastern side of Lorena, falling at a rate of over 36 mm (about 1.4 inch) per hour and at a rate of 25 mm (about 1 inch) per hour around the center and band of thunderstorms east of center.

Forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC incorporate the rainfall data into their forecasts. NHC said that Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding.

GPM also showed rain rates of 25 mm (about 1 inch) per hour around the center of Mario. Microwave imagery has indicated that Mario has been able to maintain its low-level structure, but deep convection was mostly southwest of the cyclone’s surface center, although that was outside of the GPM overpass. Both the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA and NASA manage GPM.

Hurricane Lorena Affecting Baja California, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto and for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito.

Compact Hurricane Lorena on Sept. 20, 2019

NASA satellite data has also shown that Lorena is a compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the west at near 2 mph (4 kph), and a turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday, Sept. 20. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 kph) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 millibars.

On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Tropical Storm Mario on Sept. 20, 2019

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.9 degrees north and longitude 110.1 degrees west. That is about 345 miles (555 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.

Mario is moving toward the north-northeast at near 5 mph (7 kph). A sharp turn toward the north and then toward the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday; however, confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 kph) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 millibars. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For updated forecasts, visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Mario – Eastern Pacific Ocean

Sep. 19, 2019 – NASA-NOAA Satellite Finds Tropical Storm Mario More Out of Shape

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite imagery revealed Tropical Storm Mario appeared to be losing its rounded shape in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Suomi NPP image of Mario
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over Tropical Storm Mario on Sept. 18 at 5:36 p.m. EDT (2136 UTC) and observed that the storm appeared somewhat elongated. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

When tropical cyclones begin to lose their shape and appear less circular, it is generally an indication of a storm that is weakening. Circular storms can spin faster, just like a tire on a car. Once the tire loses its circular shape it can’t rotate as fast.

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided a visible image of Mario on Sept. 18 at 5:36 p.m. EDT (2136 UTC) that indicated wind shear was affecting the storm as it did not appear circular as a result of wind shear. NPP data is used by forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center to assess factors of the storm that include structure and strength.

NASA’s Aqua satellite also passed over Mario and provided cloud top temperature data. Aqua showed Mario contained some powerful thunderstorms stretching high into the troposphere with cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder than 220 Kelvin (minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit / minus 53 degrees Celsius). NASA research has shown that storms with cloud top temperatures that cold can produce heavy rainfall.

NHC forecasters also utilized data to determine moderate easterly wind shear, associated at least in part with outflow from Mario’s larger sibling (Lorena) to the east, has prevented the tropical storm from strengthening at a faster rate.

In general, wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude. Tropical cyclones are like rotating cylinders of winds. Each level needs to be stacked on top each other vertically in order for the storm to maintain strength or intensify. Wind shear occurs when winds at different levels of the atmosphere push against the rotating cylinder of winds, weakening the rotation by pushing it apart at different levels.

During the morning of Sept. 19, microwave and first-light visible imagery suggest that the low-level center of Mario may be displaced to the east of most of its strongest thunderstorms, indicating a weakening storm.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC said, “At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 16.5 degrees north and longitude 111.5  degrees west. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 kph). Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 kph) with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What happens after that depends largely on Lorena.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For updated forecasts. visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov

By Rob Gutro 
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Mario – Eastern Pacific Ocean

Sep. 18, 2019 – NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall Occurring in Strengthening Tropical Storm Mario

When the Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite passed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, it flew over the eastern side of Tropical Storm Mario and measured rainfall.

GPM image of Mario
The GPM core satellite passed over developing Tropical Storm Mario in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Sept. 18 at 3:46 a.m. EDT (0746 UTC) and found the heaviest rainfall (pink) in the southeastern side of the storm falling at a rate of over 36 mm (about 1.4 inch) per hour. GPM data was overlaid on cloud imagery from NOAA’s GOES-West satellite. Credit: NASA/JAXA/NRL

The GPM’s core satellite passed over Mario on Sept. 18 at 3:46 a.m. EDT (0746 UTC). GPM found the heaviest rainfall in the southeastern side of the storm falling at a rate of over 36 mm (about 1.4 inch) per hour. Lighter rainfall was measured throughout the rest of the east and southern quadrants and band of thunderstorms south of center. Forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC incorporate the rainfall data into their forecasts.

Mario formed on Sept. 17 as Tropical Depression 14E and six hours later at 6 p.m. EDT, it became a tropical storm.

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), NHC forecasters said the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 14.5 degrees north and longitude 111.0 degrees west. Mario is far from land, so there are no coastal warnings or watches in effect. Mario is centered about 585 miles (940 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.

Mario is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 kph). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Mario is expected to become nearly stationary from early Friday through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 kph) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 millibars.

Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday, Sept. 19.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA.

For updated forecasts, visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center