Hurricane And Typhoon Updates

Oct. 10, 2018 #4 – Image from International Space Station of the Eye of Hurricane Michael

Oct. 10, 2018 #3 – NASA Analyzes Category 4 Hurricane Michael Approaching Landfall

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite examined Hurricane Michael after it reached Category 4 status and neared the Florida Panhandle on Oct. 10. Suomi NPP provided an infrared and night-time view of the powerful storm.

At 9 a.m. EDT on Oct. 10, water levels were quickly rising and winds increasing along the Florida panhandle as potentially catastrophic Michael approached.

Satellite Imagery Reveal

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite obtained an infrared view of Hurricane Michael in the Gulf of Mexico on Oct. 10 at 0732 UTC (2:32 a.m. CDT). At the time, Michael was a Category 4 hurricane and the eye was so well-defined it could be seen clearly by moonlight. Infrared imagery revealed strong thunderstorms and tropospheric gravity waves in the northwest and western and eastern edges of the hurricane.

National Hurricane Center forecaster Daniel Brown described Hurricane Michael in visible and infrared imagery, “Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area of very cold cloud tops.”

Many Warnings and Watches in Effect

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center has noted many warnings and watches in effect.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida to Anclote River, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Anclote River, Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka, Florida and north of Fernandina Beach, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida, including Tampa Bay; from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River; from Surf City, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina, and for the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Status of Michael at 11 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, October 10, 2018

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center reported at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 29.4 degrees north and longitude 86.0 degrees west.

Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 kph).  A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight.  A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night.  On the forecast track, the core of Michael is expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday, Oct 12.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 kph) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).  A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 kph) with a gust to 61 mph (98 kph).  A wind gust to 46 mph (74 kph) was recently reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 928 millibars.

For updated forecasts, visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov

For local warnings and forecasts, visit: www.weather.gov

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Oct. 10, 2018 #2 – Hurricane Michael a Major Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico

On Oct. 9, 2018 the 5 p.m. EDT update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida had upgraded Hurricane Michael to a Major Hurricane at Category 3 status. At that time, Michael had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and NOAA’s GOES-East satellite provided a visible look at the hurricane. Michael has since strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: NOAA/ NASA MSFC, SPoRT

Oct. 10, 2018 #1 – Michael Heads for Florida (from the Earth Observatory)

In September, North Carolina took a direct hit from a hurricane. Now it is Florida’s turn.

What began as a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea on October 2, 2018, went on to graze the Yucatan Peninsula and then strengthen into Hurricane Michael. The storm continued on its way through the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

National Hurricane Center forecasters expect the storm to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend region around midday on October 10. This area has faced relatively few hurricanes in the past, at least for the U.S. state that sees more landfalling hurricanes than any other.

“Only eight major hurricanes on record have passed within or near the projected landfall of Michael, and only three of those (Eloise 1975, Opal 1995, and Dennis 2005) were in the past 100 years,” noted Marangelly Fuentes, a NASA atmospheric scientist who has been tracking the storm with models maintained by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). “Michael’s projected intensity at landfall is currently category 3, which is worrisome because many people living in the Panhandle have little or no experience with storms this intense.”

As Michael approaches land, two key factors will help govern the intensity of the storm: ocean temperatures and wind shear, the difference in wind speeds at upper and lower parts of a storm. Warm ocean water and low wind shear are required to sustain or intensify a hurricane’s strength.

Michael managed to strengthen despite facing significant westerly shear in the Caribbean Sea on October 9, something the National Hurricane Center called “most unusual.” It then passed into an area of low shear and warm ocean water on October 10, where it continued to intensify.

The map above shows sea surface temperatures on October 8-9, 2018. Meteorologists generally agree that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) should be above 27.8°C (82°F) to sustain and intensify hurricanes (although there are some exceptions). The data for the map were compiled by Coral Reef Watch, which blends observations from the Suomi NPP, MTSAT, Meteosat, and GOES satellites and computer models. Information about the storm track and winds come from the National Hurricane Center.

Oct. 09, 2018 – NASA’s Aqua Satellite Sees Hurricane Michael Strengthening

Hurricane Michael continued strengthening while moving north-northwestward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as NASA’s Aqua satellite provided infrared and visible imagery of the storm.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC noted on Oct. 9 that life-threatening storm surge, hurricane force winds and heavy rainfall can be expected along the northeastern gulf coast as Michael continues to move toward landfall.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for. Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay, the Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border. In addition, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border and for Suwanee River, Florida to Chassahowitzka, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay, the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River and from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.

Peering at Michael in Infrared Light

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Hurricane Michael on Oct. 8 at 2:47 p.m. EDT (1847 UTC) just after it strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane and analyzed the storm in infrared light. Infrared light provides scientists with temperature data and that’s important when trying to understand how strong storms can be. The higher the cloud tops, the colder and the stronger they are. So infrared light as that gathered by the AIRS instrument can identify the strongest sides of a tropical cyclone. AIRS detected strongest storms around the center and in a thick band of storms feeding into the center from the eastern quadrant. In those areas cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius).  Storms with cloud top temperatures that cold have the capability to produce heavy rainfall.

A Visible Image of Michael

On Oct. 8, the MODIS or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument that also flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Hurricane Michael when it was a Category 1 hurricane near the western tip of Cuba. The eye appeared covered by clouds, as powerful thunderstorms circled the center. The large feeder band of thunderstorms seen by the AIRS instrument the previous day was still wrapping into the center from the eastern side of the storm and sweeping over western Cuba.

Status of Michael on Oct. 9

The NHC reported at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) on Oct. 9, the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 24.5 degrees north and longitude 86.1 degrees west. That’s about 365 miles (590 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida.

NHC said “Michael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 kph). A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 kph) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 47 mph (76 kph) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 kph). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA aircraft is 968 millibars.”

NHC forecasters said “On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night, Oct. 10 and Thursday, Oct. 11.”

For updated forecasts, visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Oct. 09, 2018 – NASA Investigated Rainfall in Hurricane Michael As it Was Developing

The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite analyzed rainfall and structure of an intensifying low pressure area in the western Caribbean Sea on Oct. 5. That system strengthened into what has become Category 2 Hurricane Michael on Oct. 9.

On Friday, Oct. 5, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that the low pressure center in the western Caribbean Sea may become a tropical cyclone in the next five days. The NHC said, “Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend or early next week as the system drifts northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico.”

Data from NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s GPM core satellite was combined with data from other satellites to provide a rainfall accumulation analysis using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals data (IMERG) program. IMERG data are used to calculate estimates of precipitation from a combination of space-borne passive microwave sensors, including the GMI microwave sensor on the GPM satellite, and geostationary IR (infrared) data. The analysis showed IMERG rainfall accumulation estimates during the period from October 1 to 5, 2018 when rainfall was getting more concentrated over the western Caribbean. IMERG indicated that rainfall accumulation totals of over 12.6 inches (320 mm ) fell in the Caribbean Sea east of Honduras during this period.

The animation shows the NASA IMERG rainfall accumulation estimates during the period from October 1 to 5, 2018 when rainfall was getting more concentrated over the western Caribbean. IMERG indicated that rainfall accumulation totals of over 12.6 inches (320 mm) fell in the Caribbean Sea east of Honduras during this period. Credit: NASA JAXA, Hal Pierce

The system developed into a depression on Sunday, Oct. 7 at 4 a.m. CDT. By 11:55 a.m. EDT, the depression strengthened into a tropical storm and was named Michael. On Oct. 8 at 11 a.m. EDT, Michael became a hurricane.

On Tuesday, Oct. 9, Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 kph) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 24.5 degrees north and longitude 86.1 degrees west. Michael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 kph).  Watches and warnings are in effect in Mississippi, Alabama and northwestern and western Florida.

For updated forecasts, visit:  www.nhc.noaa.gov

By Rob Gutro / Hal Pierce
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center