Melissa – Northern Atlantic

Oct. 11, 2019 – NASA Sees Atlantic Subtropical Storm Melissa Form off New England Coast

Satellite data has confirmed the formation of Subtropical Storm Melissa. NASA’s Terra Satellite provided a visible image the former Nor’easter turned subtropical storm off the coast of New England.

The National Hurricane Center or NHC noted that the Nor’easter centered southeast of New England (in the northeastern U.S.) becomes a subtropical storm, and that the change in storm status does not change expected impacts from wind and coastal flooding along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast and Southeastern New England.

On Oct. 11, the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra satellite provided a visible image of the newly developed Melissa. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center noted on Oct.11 at 11 a.m. EDT, “Convection increased near the center of the nor’easter centered southeast of New England overnight. First-light visible satellite imagery briefly showed an eye-like feature before the convection around the immediate center began to weaken. However, a large convective band still persists over the northern semicircle, and this structure indicated the system has transitioned to a subtropical cyclone.”

satellite image of Melissa
On Oct. 11, the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra provided a visible image of Subtropical Storm Melissa off the New England coast. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS).

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), on Oct. 11, the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 38.5 degrees North and longitude degrees 69.6 West. That is about 190 miles (300 km) south of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Melissa is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 kph), but little net motion is expected today. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast tonight and this motion will continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will move away from the east coast of the United States.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 kph) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Melissa is forecast to lose its subtropical characteristics by Saturday night. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, primarily over waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 millibars.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For updated forecasts, visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Hagibis – Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Oct. 11, 2019 – Suomi NPP Satellite Finds a Weaker Typhoon Hagibis Nearing Japan

On Oct. 10, Hagibis was a super typhoon, but overnight, the storm weakened to typhoon status. NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided a visible image of the large storm that stretched along most of the big islands of Japan.

Visible imagery from NASA satellites help forecasters understand if a storm is organizing or weakening, based on changes to its structure. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided a visible image of Hagibis that showed the eye had become cloud-filled. Despite that, A solid ring of deep convection (strong thunderstorm development) is evident around the compact, 10 nautical mile wide eye.

Satellite image of Hagibis
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over Typhoon Hagibis and revealed the eye had become cloud-filled as the storm weakened from a super typhoon to a typhoon. The eye was surrounded by powerful thunderstorms and a large tail of clouds that covered most of Japan. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

The image was created using NASA Worldview, the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) data product at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The image showed the cloud-filled eye circled by powerful thunderstorms and a large tail of clouds streaming to the northeast of the center that stretched along much of Japan’s east coast.

At 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near latitude 28.8 degrees north and longitude 137.5 degrees east. Hagibis is about 406 nautical miles south of Yokosuka, Japan. Hagibis was moving toward the north-northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 132 mph (213 kph/115 knots) with higher gusts. It is the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that Hagibis has continued to weaken and will turn to the northeast on approach to Honshu. Hagibis is expected to make a brief landfall near Tokyo during Saturday (GMT) before curving back out into the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The system is forecast to become extra-tropical south of the Kuril Islands on Sunday.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Hagibis – Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Oct. 10, 2019 – NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP Satellite Needed 3 Orbits to See All of Super Typhoon Hagibis

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided forecasters with a composite visible image of the very large Super Typhoon Hagibis in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on Oct. 10. It took Suomi NPP three orbits to capture images to show the entire storm that revealed it maintained its impressive structure.

Visible imagery from NASA satellites help forecasters understand if a storm is organizing or weakening, based on changes to its structure. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided three visible images of Hagibis on Oct. 10. Those images had to be stitched together to show the entire storm on NASA Worldview, the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) data product at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The image showed an eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms and a large “tail” of clouds streaming to the northeast of the center.

satellite image of Hagibis
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over Super Typhoon Hagibis and revealed the storm maintaining an eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms, and a large “tail” of clouds streaming to the northeast of the center. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

At 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC), NHC reported the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis was located near latitude 24.4 degrees north and longitude139.4 degrees east. Hagibis is about 654 miles (560 km) south of Yokosuka, Japan. Hagibis is moving toward the north-northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 161 mph (259 kph/140 knots) with higher gusts.

Hagibis remains at peak intensity as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The system will continue north-northwest as it goes through a weakening trend on approach to Japan. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted, “Hagibis will be making a quick landfall near Yokosuka via Sagami wan shortly after 48 hours (after 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) on Oct. 10) before exiting back into the Pacific Ocean.”

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For updated forecasts. visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Hagibis – Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Oct. 9, 2019 – NASA Covers Super Typhoon Hagibis Day and Night

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided daytime and nighttime imagery of powerful Super Typhoon Hagibis, revealing a small eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms as the storm maintained strength.

Visible imagery from NASA satellites help forecasters understand if a storm is organizing or weakening. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided an infrared image of Hagibis on Oct. 8 at 11:56 a.m. EDT (1556 UTC) and a visible image of Hagibis on Oct. 9.

Hagibis as seen by NPP on Oct. 8, 2019
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite was able to catch a nighttime view of Hagibis around 11:56 a.m. EDT (1556 UTC) on Oct 8. The waxing gibbous Moon (76% illumination) was just setting providing ample lighting to see the small cloud filled eye along with lightning streaks and some tropospheric gravity waves. Credit: NASA/NOAA/UWM CIMSS, William Straka III.

The night-time high resolution infrared imagery showed a very small eye along with copious amounts of tropospheric gravity waves as well as some overshooting cloud tops (into the stratosphere) in some of the outer bands of thunderstorms. Overshooting cloud tops indicate very strong uplift of air and powerful thunderstorms. The waxing gibbous Moon (76% illumination) was just setting and provided ample lighting to see the small cloud-filled eye along with lightning streaks and some tropospheric gravity waves.

It took two images stitched together to create a complete visible, daytime picture of Hagibis. The Suomi NPP satellite passed over Hagibis twice on October 9 to get the entire storm. That image revealed that Hagibis maintained its small eye and powerful thunderstorms circling the center. Powerful bands of thunderstorms from north and south of center were also spiraling into the low-level center. The image was created by NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

Hagibis as seen by NPP on Oct. 9, 2019
On Oct. 9, 2019, NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over Super typhoon Hagibis and captured this visible image of the storm. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

On Oct. 9 at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), Hagibis was centered near 21.2 degrees north latitude and 139.6 degrees east longitude. That is about 236 nautical miles south-southwest of Iwo To island, Japan. Hagibis was moving to the north-northwest at 6 knots and had maximum sustained winds near 140 knots (161 mph/259 kph) making it a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Hagibis is expected to remain a strong tropical cyclone over the next day, eventually weakening as it turns to the north and likely impacting Japan by the weekend, per the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Hagibis – Western Pacific Ocean

Oct. 7, 2019 – NASA Examines Super Typhoon Hagibis, Warnings in Guam, Micronesia

Super typhoon Hagibis formed quickly over the weekend of Oct. 5 and 6. NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the storm after it achieved super typhoon status on Oct. 6 found extremely cold cloud top temperatures, indicating very powerful storms with heavy rainfall potential. Warnings are in effect in Guam and throughout the Federated States of Micronesia on Oct. 7.

One of the ways NASA researches tropical cyclones is using infrared data that provides temperature information. The AIRS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a look at those temperatures in Super Typhoon Hagibis and gave insight into the storm’s rainfall potential near Guam.

Purple swirl in rainbow sea
On Oct 6 at 3:53 p.m. EDT (1553 UTC) NASA’s Aqua satellite analyzed Hagibis when it was a tropical storm using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument. AIRS found coldest cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder than (purple) minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius) around the center and in a thick band of thunderstorms east and west of center. Credit: NASA JPL/Heidar Thrastarson

Cloud top temperatures provide information to forecasters about where the strongest storms are located within a tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones do not always have uniform strength, and some sides have stronger sides than others. The stronger the storms, the higher they extend into the troposphere, and they have the colder cloud temperatures. NASA provides data to forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC so they can incorporate in their forecasting. Those data went into the forecasts from the National Weather Service office in Tiyan, Guam on Oct. 7.

Oct. 6 at 3:53 p.m. EDT (1553 UTC) NASA’s Aqua satellite analyzed the storm using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument when Hagibis was a tropical storm and strengthening quickly. When Aqua passed overhead, Hagibis had maximum sustained winds near 50 knots (57 mph/93 kph).

AIRS found coldest cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder than minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius) around Super Typhoon Hagibis’ center and in thick bands of thunderstorms west and east of center. Those cloud top temperatures continued to drop as Hagibis strengthened from a tropical storm into a typhoon.

NASA research has shown that cloud top temperatures that cold indicate strong storms that have the capability to create heavy rain.

tornado over the ocean
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite captured this visible image of Super typhoon Hagibis on Oct. 7 affecting both Guam and the Federated States of Micronesia. It showed a well-defined eye covered by high clouds, surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. A thick, powerful band of thunderstorms was wrapping into the low-level center from the southwest, and a large band of thunderstorms stretched around the eastern quadrant and extended far south of the storm. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

Hagibis reached super typhoon status on Oct. 7 by 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC). After that time, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided a visible image of Super typhoon Hagibis. It showed a well-defined eye covered by high clouds, surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. A thick, powerful band of thunderstorms was wrapping into the low-level center from the southwest, and a large band of thunderstorms stretched around the eastern quadrant and extended far south of the storm. The storm was affecting both Guam and the Federated States of Micronesia.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Saipan, Tinian, Alamagan and Pagan Islands in the CNMI. Typhoon conditions, including destructive winds of 74 mph or more, will continue through Tuesday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota and Agrihan Islands. Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected through Tuesday morning. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the NWS of Guam noted the center of Super typhoon Hagibis was located by satellite near Latitude 16.1 degrees North and Longitude 146.7 degrees East. That is about 70 miles east-southeast of Anatahan and about 95 miles northeast of Saipan.

Hagibis is moving west-northwest at 15 mph and is expected to maintain this general course and speed through Tuesday. Hagibis is expected to pass over Anatahan later tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain at 150 mph. Hagibis is forecast to intensify further through Tuesday, possibly reaching peak intensity Tuesday evening, Oct. 8.

The AIRS instrument is one of six instruments flying on board NASA’s Aqua satellite, launched on May 4, 2002.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For updated forecasts, visit: https://www.weather.gov/gum/

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Mitag – Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Oct. 03, 2019 – NASA Finds a Transitioning Cyclone Mitag Filling the Sea of Japan

NASA’s Terra satellite passed over the Sea of Japan on Oct. 3 and captured a visible image of Tropical Storm Mitag. Clouds associated with the storm blanketed the Sea of Japan and satellite imagery indicated the storm was becoming extra-tropical.

Terra image of Mitag
On Oct. 3, the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra provided a visible image of Tropical Storm Mitag filling up the Sea of Japan. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS).

On Oct. 3, the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra satellite provided a visible image of Mitag. The MODIS imagery indicated that Mitag had an elongated and poorly defined low level circulation center with the bulk of clouds and convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone) pushed to the northeast of the center as a result of southwesterly wind shear. Sheared convection and initial frontal features indicate that the system is undergoing extratropical transition.

What is Wind Shear?

In general, wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude. Tropical cyclones are like rotating cylinders of winds. Each level needs to be stacked on top each other vertically in order for the storm to maintain strength or intensify. Wind shear occurs when winds at different levels of the atmosphere push against the rotating cylinder of winds, weakening the rotation by pushing it apart at different levels.

What does Extra-tropical Mean?

When a storm becomes extra-tropical it means that a tropical cyclone has lost its “tropical” characteristics. The National Hurricane Center defines “extra-tropical” as a transition that implies both poleward displacement (meaning it moves toward the north or south pole) of the cyclone and the conversion of the cyclone’s primary energy source from the release of latent heat of condensation to baroclinic (the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses) processes. It is important to note that cyclones can become extratropical and still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm force.

Mitag’s Final Warning

On Oct. 3 at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued the final warning on Tropical Storm Mitag. At that time, Mitag was centered near 38.0 degrees north latitude and 131.8 degrees east longitude. That is about 406 miles west-southwest of Misawa, Japan. Mitag was moving to the northeast and had maximum sustained winds near 40 knots (46 mph/74 kph).

Mitag is moving east-northeast and is expected to make landfall over northern Honshu, Japan, tracking south of Misawa. It is becoming extra-tropical over the Sea of Japan and the extent of the winds (wind field) is expected to become larger after it makes that transition.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Lorenzo – Atlantic Ocean

Oct. 03, 2019 – NASA Sees Post-tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Affecting Ireland

NASA’s Terra satellite passed over the eastern North Atlantic Ocean early on Oct. 3 and captured a visible image of Post-tropical Cyclone Lorenzo as it neared Ireland. Lorenzo’s eastern side is already affecting Ireland, and both Ireland and the United Kingdom have posted warnings today.

Terra image of Lorenzo
On Oct. 3, the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra provided a visible image of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo moving through the North Atlantic Ocean and just west of Ireland. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS).

On Oct. 3, Lorenzo was still a powerful post-tropical storm. NASA satellite images indicated that frontal features had formed as indicated by its elongated appearance.

The Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra satellite provided a visible image of Lorenzo. The MODIS image showed the cloud-filled center of circulation west of Ireland.  Clouds and precipitation associated with the system had already spread over Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom.

A Post-Tropical Storm is a generic term for a former tropical cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone.  Three classes of post-tropical cyclones include fully extratropical, subtropical, or remnant lows. In any case, they no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. However, post-tropical cyclones can continue to carry heavy rains and produce high winds.

On Oct. 3, Met Eireann, Ireland’s Meteorological Service issued rainfall and wind warnings for the country. The effects of Post-Tropical Storm Lorenzo will begin to be felt across Ireland this morning. Met Eireann uses three different colors to designate warnings. Yellow means “Not unusual weather. Localised danger.” Orange means “Infrequent. Dangerous/disruptive.” Red means “Rare. Extremely dangerous/destructive.”

A Status Yellow Wind warning is in effect for all of Ireland that calls for southeasterly winds to reach mean speeds 50 to 65 kph (31 to 40 mph) with higher gusts. A Status Yellow Wind warning is in effect for Wexford, Cork, Tipperary and Waterford.

There’s an Orange Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick. Southwesterly winds veering westerly will reach mean speeds 65 to 80 kph (40 to 50 mph) with gusts generally of 100 to 130 kph (62 to 81 mph), higher in some coastal regions. Storm surges will produce coastal flooding and damage. There is also a Status Orange Gale Warning in effect as southeast gales or strong gales are expected today on all Irish Coastal Waters and on the Irish Sea.

A Status Yellow Rainfall warning for Connacht, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal. That means spells of heavy rain at times today and tonight will result in some flooding.

In coastal areas, Lorenzo will produce significant swells, high waves and sizeable storm surges. This will lead to wave overtopping, some coastal flooding and damage. Met Eireann noted that saturated soils and the expected heavy rainfall may lead to surface flooding. In addition, river levels are currently elevated across the country and the rainfall may lead to river flooding in parts of the midlands, west and northwest.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For updated forecasts from Met Eireann, Ireland’s Meteorological Service, Visit: https://www.met.ie/warnings

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Mitag – Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Oct. 02, 2019 – NASA Finds Mitag’s Areas of Heavy Rainfall over Korean Peninsula

Tropical Storm Mitag was dropping heavy rainfall along coastal areas of South Korea and lighter rainfall over the entire country.  The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM satellite provided a look at the rainfall occurring from the system.

GPM image of Mitag
The GPM’s core satellite passed over Tropical Storm Mitag on Oct. 2 at 8:46 a.m. EDT (1246 UTC). GPM found heaviest rain (orange) falling in scattered areas over the eastern and southern coasts of South Korea and Sea of Japan. GPM found light rain (light blue) falling over the rest of South Korea at around 0.2 inches (5 millimeters) per hour.  Japan’s Himawari-8 satellite provided the cloud imagery. Credit: NASA/NRL

The GPM’s core satellite passed over Tropical Storm Mitag on Oct. 2 at 8:46 a.m. EDT (1246 UTC). GPM found heaviest rain falling in scattered areas over the eastern and southern coasts of South Korea and over the Sea of Japan. GPM found light rain falling over the rest of South Korea at around 0.2 inches (5 millimeters) per hour.

On Oct. 2 at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), Mitag was located near latitude 34.4 degrees north and longitude 126.3 degrees west. Mitag was centered about 91 nautical miles south of Kunsan Air Base, South Korea. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 knots (46 mph/74 kph) and are weakening.

Mitag is moving northeast and is currently over land in South Korea. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center expect that the storm will become extra-tropical in the Sea of Japan.

Typhoons and hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA.

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Lorenzo – Atlantic Ocean

Oct. 02, 2019  – NASA Examines Extra-tropical Large Lorenzo’s Rainfall

Lorenzo is still at hurricane force in the eastern North Atlantic has now transitioned to an extra-tropical cyclone and has grown in size. The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite provided a look at the rainfall occurring within this strong system. The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has discontinued all warnings for the Azores, and now Ireland and the United Kingdom are on watch for Lorenzo’s approach.

NASA Looks at Lorenzo’s Rainfall, Extra-Tropical Transition

GPM image of Lorenzo
The GPM’s core satellite passed over Lorenzo on Oct. 2 at 4:31 a.m. EDT (0831 UTC). GPM found the heaviest rainfall occurring north of the center, where it was falling at a rate of more than 1 inch (25 mm) per hour (red). Credit: NASA/JAXA/NRL

The GPM’s core satellite passed over Lorenzo on Oct. 2 at 4:31 a.m. EDT (0831 UTC). GPM found the heaviest rainfall occurring north of the center, where it was falling at a rate of more than 1 inch (25 mm) per hour. Scattered light rain falling at less than 0.2 inches (less than 5 millimeters) per hour circled the rest of the storm. Forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC incorporate the NASA rainfall data into their forecasts.

Satellite data showed that Lorenzo had become extra-tropical. That means that a tropical cyclone has lost its “tropical” characteristics. NHC defines “extra-tropical” as a transition that implies both poleward displacement (meaning it moves toward the north or south pole) of the cyclone and the conversion of the cyclone’s primary energy source from the release of latent heat of condensation to baroclinic (the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses) processes. It is important to note that cyclones that become extratropical can still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm force.

Status of Lorenzo on Oct. 2

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on Oct. 2, NHC issued its last public advisory on this system.  The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 degrees north and longitude 25.8 degrees west. That is about 945 miles (1,525 km) west-southwest of Cork, Ireland, and about 970 miles (1,565 km) west-southwest of Galway, Ireland. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 kph). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 kph) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and England.

Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 millibars.

Lorenzo’s Forecast Path

Lorenzo is expected to bring strong winds and rainfall to Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom.

The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England on Thursday night and Friday.

Ireland Braces for Lorenzo

On Oct. 2, Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service issued this forecast about Lorenzo’s approach and effects:  “Turning wet and windy on Thursday as the outer rainbands associated with Storm Lorenzo track across Ireland. Southeast winds will be strong and gusty with some damaging gusts. Very high seas are expected along the Atlantic coast. Feeling increasingly humid with temperatures of 13 to 17 degrees Celsius [55.4 to 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit]. During Thursday evening [Oct. 3] the centre of Storm Lorenzo will move closer to the northwest coast. Southerly winds will veer west to southwest, with gales and severe damaging gusts, especially along Atlantic coasts. Intense falls of thundery rain will move into the west, too.”

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the U.K. Met Office.

Lorenzo’s Ocean Effects Over Large Area

NHC forecasters noted that swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie

Additional information on this system can be found at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-seas-forecast

By Rob Gutro 
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Narda – Eastern Pacific

Oct. 01, 2019 – NASA Finds Narda’s Remnants Bringing Rain to Mexico, Headed to Southwestern U.S.

The remnant low pressure area that was formerly known as tropical cyclone Narda is still generating rainfall as it moves toward the southwestern U.S. The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM satellite provided a look at the rainfall occurring on the eastern side of the system.

GPM image of Narda
The GPM’s core satellite passed over Narda’s remnants on Oct. 1 at 12:16 a.m. EDT (0416 UTC). GPM found scattered light rain (light blue) from the remnant clouds falling at around 0.2 inches (5 millimeters) per hour. NOAA’s GOES-West satellite provided the cloud imagery. Credit: NASA/NRL

The GPM’s core satellite passed over the eastern side of Narda’s remnants on Oct. 1 at 12:16 a.m. EDT (0416 UTC). GPM found scattered light rain from the remnant clouds falling at around 0.2 inches (5 millimeters) per hour. Forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center or NHC incorporated that rainfall data into their forecast.

NHC said, “Narda is expected to produce additional rainfall of up to 2 inches across portions of Chihuahua and Sonora. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next couple of days, enhancing rainfall and the threat of flash flooding in those areas.”

On Oct. 1 at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Narda were located near latitude 27.3 degrees north and longitude 110.3 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 kph) and are weakening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA.

For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml

By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center